League League Local Team Visitor Team BET Bookmaker ODD Stake Fair Odd Date
FA Cup Tranmere Rovers Brackley Town 1 marathonbet 1.61 1.18 1.57 2020-11-27
FA Cup Stockport County Yeovil Town 2 skybet 3.75 0.52 3.51 2020-11-29
FA Cup Plymouth Argyle Lincoln City 1 betfair 2.6 0.69 2.48 2020-11-28
FA Cup Morecambe Solihull Moors 1 skybet 2.05 0.88 1.98 2020-11-28
FA Cup Gillingham Exeter City 2 bet-at-home 4.4 0.46 4.09 2020-11-28
FA Cup Bristol Rovers Darlington 1 betfair 1.4 1.56 1.38 2020-11-29
FA Cup Shrewsbury Town Oxford City 1 betfair 1.36 1.59 1.34 2020-11-29
Eerste Divisie FC Eindhoven De Graafschap X bet365 4.33 0.47 4.02 2020-11-29
Eerste Divisie Helmond Sport Jong PSV 2 10bet 3.2 0.59 3.02 2020-11-27
Bundesliga Borussia M'gladbach Schalke 04 1 cloudbet 1.47 1.38 1.44 2020-11-28
2. Bundesliga Karlsruher SC Paderborn X 1xbet 3.9 0.5 3.64 2020-11-28
3. Liga Uerdingen Verl 1 intertops 3 0.62 2.84 2020-11-27
3. Liga Zwickau Magdeburg 2 bet365 3.6 0.53 3.38 2020-11-28
3. Liga VfB Lübeck Waldhof Mannheim X marathon 3.55 0.54 3.33 2020-11-28
3. Liga 1860 München Türkgücü-Ataspor 2 bet365 3.6 0.53 3.38 2020-11-28
1. HNL Varaždin Istra 1961 2 betfair 3.3 0.63 3.11 2020-11-28
Superliga Randers OB 2 pncl 3.25 0.58 3.06 2020-11-27
First Division FC Helsingør Fremad Amager X bet365 4 0.49 3.73 2020-11-27
Ligat ha'Al Bnei Yehuda Hapoel Tel Aviv 2 pncl 3.59 0.54 3.37 2020-11-28
Liga Leumit Hapoel Nazareth Illit Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1 interwetten 1.63 1.17 1.59 2020-11-27
Liga Leumit Hapoel Ra'anana Kafr Qasim 1 marathonbet 1.86 0.98 1.8 2020-11-27
Liga Leumit Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Hapoel Iksal 2 pncl 2.9 0.63 2.75 2020-11-27
Liga Leumit Hapoel Afula Hapoel Ramat Gan 1 bet-at-home 5 0.52 4.61 2020-11-27
Liga Leumit Hapoel Rishon LeZion Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2 bet-at-home 4.9 0.45 4.53 2020-11-27
Liga Leumit Hapoel Ramat HaSharon Hapoel Katamon 1 interwetten 2.75 0.66 2.61 2020-11-27
Serie B Brescia Frosinone 2 bet365 3.4 0.59 3.2 2020-11-28
Serie B Cosenza Salernitana X skybet 3.2 0.59 3.02 2020-11-29
Ekstraklasa Podbeskidzie Śląsk Wrocław 1 pncl 4.21 0.48 3.92 2020-11-28
Ekstraklasa Stal Mielec Jagiellonia Białystok 2 unibet 2.45 0.73 2.34 2020-11-28
1. Liga Górnik Łęczna ŁKS Łódź 1 betfair 4.6 0.45 4.26 2020-11-27
Premier League Rostov Dinamo Moskva 2 unibet 3.15 0.66 2.97 2020-11-28
Premier League Spartak Moskva Rotor Volgograd 1 marathon 1.41 1.47 1.39 2020-11-29
Allsvenskan Helsingborg Falkenberg 2 pncl 5.37 0.49 4.94 2020-11-29
Super Lig Ankaragücü Trabzonspor 2 dafabet 2 0.89 1.93 2020-11-27
Serie A Bahia São Paulo X marathon 3.68 0.52 3.45 2020-11-28
Serie A Palmeiras Athletico PR 2 bet365 6 0.38 5.49 2020-11-28
Serie B Cuiabá Avaí X 1xbet 3.26 0.57 3.07 2020-11-28
Pro League Al Ittihad Al Quadisiya 1 888sport 1.9 0.96 1.84 2020-11-27

The Valuebet

First, the Value Bet is independent and thus not related to the Predictions. While the Predictions evaluates the probabilities of game events, the Value Bet is processing thousands of historical odds data and market trends to find Value opportunities, compared against bookmakers odds. Once the opening odds are available, the value detection algorithm is running every 10 minutes up to the beginning of the match. Each value detected by the model is coming with a set of features I will describe below.

The stake feature

Each of the Value Bet detected by the model has a stake. The stake is helping to manage the risk that the model would take in the bet. It is somewhere between the Kelly (1) bet and the Markowitz (2) theory. The risk is measured with the volatility of the profit and loss of the Value Bet Strategy. The stake is calculated in order to have an average risk of one unit (it could be one euro, one dollar…) In order to illustrate this, let’s assume one always bets on an event which has 20% of success. The fair odd in this case is 5. If your stake is 3 units, this is mean that in 20% of the time your profit is 12 units and in 80% of the time your loss is -3 units. The volatility and thus the risk of the profit and loss is 6 units in this case. The Value Bet gives for each value detected the stake that will give you a volatility of 1 unit if the match was played multiple times. This way you own the same risk for every Value found. The maximum allowed stake is 5 units. But it is important to keep this scale the same. If you want to take a risk of 2 (or any number) units in average, you just have to multiply all the stakes by 2 (or any number). In this case the maximum stake will be 10 units.

Introducing the fair odd feature

Our algorithm allows you to find the fair odd of a value. The fair odd is useful to play against bookmakers that are not listed in 1×2.Expert. Any odd above the fair odd can be considered as Value. In the previous example (fair odd = 5), any odd offered by a random bookmaker above 5 should be taken for a bet.
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