Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction: Odds & Analysis
Prediction and odds for the Serie A match between Lecce and Fiorentina. Statistical analysis with Poisson model probabilities, recent form, ELO rating and head-to-head.
Lecce currently sits in 18 place in the Serie A standings, while Fiorentina is in 15 position. At home this season, Lecce has played 16 matches recording 4 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, averaging 0.7 goals scored per game. Away from home, Fiorentina has 4 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in 16 matches, scoring an average of 1.1 goals per game. Bookmaker odds for this match: 3.60 for a Lecce win, 3.48 for the draw, and 2.22 for a Fiorentina victory.
Serie A
Monday, 20 April 2026 • 21:45
Predictions
xG:
0.59
-
1.65
MG 1-3
NG
2
Base
U4.5
92.3%
O0.5
90.7%
X2
85.6%
U3.5
81.1%
12
78.8%
NG
65.2%
2
64.4%
O1.5
64.2%
U2.5
61.1%
O2.5
38.9%
U1.5
35.8%
1X
35.6%
GG
34.8%
X
21.2%
Multigoal
MG 1-5
88.0%
MG 1-4
83.0%
MG 0-3
81.1%
MG 1-3
71.8%
MG 2-6
63.4%
MG 2-5
61.5%
Combo
12+NG
55.9%
X2+NG
55.2%
2+NG
45.9%
2+U2.5
33.3%
2+U+NG
33.3%
2+O2.5
31.2%
X2+GG
30.4%
12+GG
22.9%
1X+NG
19.2%
2+GG
18.5%
2+O+GG
18.5%
X+U2.5
18.3%
Reliable data
Lecce (Home)
ELO Rating
1,609
Form
-11
Current Streaks
Over 2.5
2
Fiorentina (Away)
ELO Rating
1,778
Form
17
Current Streaks
Consecutive wins
2
Unbeaten
2
Scoring
2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lecce
V
S
S
S
S
3/15 pt
Fiorentina
P
V
P
V
V
11/15 pt
Lecce (H)
Season Statistics
(A)
Fiorentina
0.69
Avg Goals Scored
1.06
1.38
Avg Goals Conceded
1.5
50%
% Over 2.5
63%
38%
% BTTS
56%
25%
% Clean Sheets
19%
16
Matches
16
Goal Distribution by Minutes
Lecce (H)
1-15'
4
16-30'
3
31-45'
1
46-60'
0
61-75'
1
76-90'
2
Scored (11)
Fiorentina (A)
1-15'
1
16-30'
4
31-45'
2
46-60'
6
61-75'
1
76-90'
2
Scored (16)
Odds
Result (1X2)
13.60
X3.48
22.22
Under / Over 2.5
Over2.24
Under1.76
BTTS
Yes (GG)1.86
No (NG)1.86
* Le quote sono soggette a variazione.
Info
- League Serie A
- Season 2025/2026
- Matchday 33
- Date 20/04/2026