Man City vs Aston Villa Prediction: Odds & Analysis
Prediction and odds for the Premier League match between Man City and Aston Villa. Statistical analysis with Poisson model probabilities, recent form, ELO rating and head-to-head.
At home this season, Man City has played 15 matches recording 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.4 goals scored per game. Away from home, Aston Villa has 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in 15 matches, scoring an average of 1.3 goals per game. Man City comes into this match on a run of 14 consecutive unbeaten matches.
Premier League
Sunday, 24 May 2026 • 18:00
Predictions
xG:
2.34
-
0.75
1
MG 2-5
U3.5
Base
O0.5
96.5%
1X
88.7%
12
85.3%
O1.5
80.4%
U4.5
79.9%
1
74.0%
U3.5
62.6%
O2.5
59.7%
NG
53.3%
GG
46.7%
U2.5
40.3%
O3.5
37.4%
X2
26.0%
O4.5
20.1%
Multigoal
MG 1-5
87.1%
MG 2-6
76.6%
MG 1-4
76.4%
MG 2-5
71.0%
MG 0-3
62.6%
MG 2-4
60.3%
Combo
1+O2.5
49.9%
12+NG
49.8%
1X+NG
47.2%
1+NG
43.7%
1X+GG
41.6%
12+GG
35.5%
1+GG
30.3%
1+O+GG
30.3%
1+U2.5
24.1%
1+U+NG
24.1%
1+O+NG
19.6%
X2+GG
16.4%
Reliable data
Man City (Home)
ELO Rating
0
Form
0
Current Streaks
Unbeaten
14
Scoring
14
Over 2.5
3
BTTS Yes
2
Aston Villa (Away)
ELO Rating
0
Form
0
Current Streaks
Winless
3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Man City
V
V
V
P
P
11/15 pt
Aston Villa
P
S
S
S
V
4/15 pt
Man City (H)
Season Statistics
(A)
Aston Villa
2.4
Avg Goals Scored
1.27
0.73
Avg Goals Conceded
1.47
67%
% Over 2.5
47%
47%
% BTTS
60%
47%
% Clean Sheets
20%
15
Matches
15
Goal Distribution by Minutes
Man City (H)
1-15'
5
16-30'
7
31-45'
10
46-60'
3
61-75'
8
76-90'
3
Scored (36)
Aston Villa (A)
1-15'
1
16-30'
2
31-45'
3
46-60'
3
61-75'
4
76-90'
6
Scored (19)
Info
- League Premier League
- Season 2025/2026
- Matchday 38
- Date 24/05/2026