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Alkmaar vs Heerenveen Prediction: Odds & Analysis

Prediction and odds for the Eredivisie match between Alkmaar and Heerenveen. Statistical analysis with Poisson model probabilities, recent form, ELO rating and head-to-head.

Alkmaar currently sits in 6 place in the Eredivisie standings, while Heerenveen is in 7 position. At home this season, Alkmaar has played 14 matches recording 7 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, averaging 2.2 goals scored per game. Away from home, Heerenveen has 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in 14 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game. Bookmaker odds for this match: 1.74 for a Alkmaar win, 4.17 for the draw, and 4.42 for a Heerenveen victory. Alkmaar comes into this match on a run of 15 consecutive scoring matches.

Eredivisie
Sunday, 12 April 2026 • 17:45
Predictions
xG: 1.62 - 2.17
O2.5 X2 GG
Base
O0.5 98.8%
O1.5 88.1%
12 81.5%
O2.5 72.9%
X2 70.2%
GG 70.0%
U4.5 67.0%
O3.5 52.4%
2 51.6%
1X 48.4%
U3.5 47.6%
O4.5 33.0%
NG 30.0%
1 29.8%
Multigoal
MG 1-5 80.5%
MG 2-6 79.2%
MG 2-5 69.9%
MG 1-4 65.8%
MG 3-6 63.9%
MG 2-4 55.1%
Combo
12+GG 52.7%
X2+GG 50.3%
2+O2.5 40.3%
1X+GG 37.0%
2+GG 33.0%
2+O+GG 33.0%
12+NG 28.8%
1+O2.5 22.2%
X2+NG 19.9%
1+GG 19.7%
1+O+GG 19.7%
2+NG 18.6%
Reliable data
Alkmaar (Home)
ELO Rating
1,808
Form
-4
Current Streaks
Scoring
15
Unbeaten
4
Consecutive wins
3
BTTS No
2
Clean Sheets
2
Heerenveen (Away)
ELO Rating
1,863
Form
11
Current Streaks
Over 2.5
8
Scoring
4
BTTS Yes
4
Unbeaten
2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alkmaar
S
S
V
S
V
6/15 pt
Heerenveen
V
V
V
P
V
13/15 pt
Alkmaar (H)
Season Statistics
(A) Heerenveen
2.21
Avg Goals Scored
1.57
1.5
Avg Goals Conceded
1.71
71%
% Over 2.5
79%
79%
% BTTS
64%
21%
% Clean Sheets
14%
14
Matches
14
Goal Distribution by Minutes
Alkmaar (H)
1-15'
7
16-30'
2
31-45'
10
46-60'
3
61-75'
4
76-90'
6
Scored (32)
Heerenveen (A)
1-15'
1
16-30'
3
31-45'
6
46-60'
4
61-75'
5
76-90'
3
Scored (22)

Odds

Result (1X2)
11.74
X4.17
24.42
Under / Over 2.5
Over1.35
Under2.76
BTTS
Yes (GG)1.40
No (NG)2.73
* Le quote sono soggette a variazione.

Info

  • League Eredivisie
  • Season 2025/2026
  • Matchday 30
  • Date 12/04/2026