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Dundalk vs Derry City Prediction: Odds & Analysis

Prediction and odds for the League of Ireland Premier match between Dundalk and Derry City. Statistical analysis with Poisson model probabilities, recent form, ELO rating and head-to-head.

Dundalk currently sits in 4 place in the League of Ireland Premier standings, while Derry City is in 6 position. At home this season, Dundalk has played 9 matches recording 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game. Away from home, Derry City has 1 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in 9 matches, scoring an average of 0.9 goals per game. Bookmaker odds for this match: 2.28 for a Dundalk win, 3.50 for the draw, and 2.92 for a Derry City victory. Dundalk comes into this match on a run of 15 consecutive scoring matches.

League of Ireland Premier
Friday, 29 May 2026 • 21:45
Predictions
xG: 1.29 - 0.74
12 MG 1-3 U2.5
Base
U4.5 94.5%
O0.5 88.4%
U3.5 85.3%
1X 77.0%
12 74.2%
U2.5 67.0%
NG 63.9%
O1.5 58.4%
1 51.2%
X2 48.8%
U1.5 41.6%
GG 36.1%
O2.5 33.0%
X 25.8%
Multigoal
MG 1-5 86.7%
MG 0-3 85.3%
MG 1-4 82.9%
MG 1-3 73.7%
MG 0-2 67.0%
MG 2-6 57.9%
Combo
12+NG 52.3%
1X+NG 47.8%
1+NG 36.3%
1+U2.5 29.6%
1+U+NG 29.6%
1X+GG 29.2%
X2+NG 27.6%
X+U2.5 22.5%
12+GG 21.9%
1+O2.5 21.6%
X2+GG 21.2%
2+NG 16.0%
Sufficient data
Dundalk (Home)
ELO Rating
1,678
Form
-1
Current Streaks
Scoring
15
Derry City (Away)
ELO Rating
1,760
Form
-8
Current Streaks
Winless
3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk
S
P
S
V
P
5/15 pt
Derry City
P
S
P
P
P
4/15 pt
Dundalk (H)
Season Statistics
(A) Derry City
1.78
Avg Goals Scored
0.89
1
Avg Goals Conceded
1.11
56%
% Over 2.5
44%
56%
% BTTS
56%
44%
% Clean Sheets
22%
9
Matches
9
Goal Distribution by Minutes
Dundalk (H)
1-15'
4
16-30'
3
31-45'
7
46-60'
7
61-75'
3
76-90'
14
Scored (38)
Derry City (A)
1-15'
1
16-30'
3
31-45'
7
46-60'
1
61-75'
4
76-90'
2
Scored (18)

Odds

Result (1X2)
12.28
X3.50
22.92
Under / Over 2.5
Over1.81
Under1.97
BTTS
Yes (GG)1.63
No (NG)2.14
* Le quote sono soggette a variazione.

Info

  • League League of Ireland Premier
  • Season 2025/2026
  • Matchday 19
  • Date 29/05/2026